| 基于我国西南地区儿童行为模式的IEUBK模型本地化研究 |
| 摘要点击 2199 全文点击 1168 投稿时间：2013-02-22 修订日期：2013-04-08 |
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| 中文关键词 IEUBK模型 儿童行为模式 儿童血铅含量 铅污染 本地化 |
| 英文关键词 IEUBK model children’s behavior parameters children's blood lead concentrations lead pollution localization |
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| 中文摘要 |
| IEUBK(Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model for Lead in Children)模型是美国环保署开发并推荐使用的儿童铅暴露风险评价模型,该模型的本地化是将其应用到我国的基础. 本研究通过对儿童行为模式参数的敏感性分析,确定了儿童血铅含量对以手口接触为主要方式的土壤/灰尘暴露途径最为敏感. 以我国西南Y省某污染区域为试点地区,采用问卷调查和环境介质分析等方法,对IEUBK模型中的儿童行为模式参数、环境介质铅浓度参数、土壤和灰尘摄入量参数进行了本地化. 采用本地化后的模型预测了相邻的G省某重金属冶炼项目投产前及投产后5、10和20 a的儿童血铅含量,其几何平均值分别为5.28、5.77、6.03和6.32 μg·dL-1; 如果直接引用基于美国的模型默认参数,预测出的20 a后儿童血铅含量偏低61.39%. |
| 英文摘要 |
| IEUBK(Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model for Lead in Children) model was developed and recommended by the US Environmental Protection Agency. In order to apply IEUBK model to China, we firstly performed sensitivity analysis, which showed that simulated blood Pb (PbB) concentration was most sensitive to soil/dust exposure pathway. In-home surveys were conducted in Y province of China to gather information on children's behavior parameters and environmental samples for parameters localization. Finally the verified model was applied to predict children's PbB level in comparison with that modeled by default parameter values. Results showed that geometric mean values of children's PbB concentration were 5.28 μg·dL-1, 5.77 μg·dL-1, 6.03 μg·dL-1 and 6.32 μg·dL-1 before and 5, 10 and 20 years after the establishment of a new factory in the neighboring G province. The simulated PbB after 20 years was 61.39% lower by original model than that by the localized model. |
